Navigating the New Global Trade Landscape: Insights and Support from BTG Global Advisory

The global trade landscape is undergoing profound and lasting change. Heightened geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism, and increasing regulatory complexity are reshaping how businesses operate across borders. For business leaders, stakeholders, and crucially investors, understanding and responding to these developments is essential for protecting value and identifying new opportunities.

Key Changes in the Global Trade Order

1. Increased Protectionism
   Governments worldwide are responding to economic uncertainty with tariffs, trade restrictions, and localization incentives. Recent U.S. tariff hikes—ranging from 10% on UK, Australian, Brazilian, and Canadian goods to 145% on Chinese exports—are straining global trade relationships. The EU faces a 20% tariff, affecting a wide range of industries. These measures could disrupt export-driven sectors, trigger retaliatory actions, and redefine international competitiveness.
2. Supply Chain Realignments
   The imperative to build resilient, diversified supply chains is now widely accepted. Companies in tariff-impacted countries, such as Canada and China, are reconsidering production footprints and logistics networks to avoid elevated duties and access alternative markets. These shifts come at significant cost, raising questions about margin pressure, operational risks, and long-term return on capital.
3. Regulatory and Compliance Pressure
   Stricter trade regulations, enhanced scrutiny on cross-border transactions, and anti-tax avoidance rules are expanding the compliance burden. In the UK, the Bank of England has warned that escalating global trade tensions could pose severe economic shocks, adding to inflationary pressures and shaping future monetary policy. Investors, particularly in regulated or export-heavy sectors, are more focused than ever on governance and risk controls.
4. Technology and Trade Innovation
   Blockchain, AI, and other technologies are reshaping the mechanics of trade, finance, and compliance. Businesses that lag in adoption may lose efficiency and attractiveness to both customers and capital providers.
   Implications for Businesses and Investors

For existing investors, especially private equity, family offices, and institutional shareholders, these shifts can materially impact business models, valuations, and exit strategies. Operational complexity and geopolitical risk are becoming critical factors in portfolio assessments.

For new investors, assessing market-entry timing, jurisdictional risk, and return potential is now far more nuanced. Traditional assumptions about growth regions and stable trade flows no longer hold. Strategic capital deployment demands a deeper understanding of evolving trade, tariff, and regulatory dynamics.

In this climate, proactive restructuring, scenario planning, and targeted investment support are not just strategic, they are essential.

How BTG Global Advisory Can Support Stakeholders and Investors

BTG Global Advisory brings together leading independent restructuring and advisory firms from around the world. Our cross-border expertise positions us to advise management teams, investors, and lenders facing the challenges and opportunities in this new environment.

Insolvency & Restructuring Services
We help businesses and their investors manage distress, from covenant breaches to full-scale restructuring. Our aim is to stabilise value, preserve optionality, and re-align businesses with investor goals.

Turnaround and Performance Improvement
We work with stakeholders to enhance operational efficiency, address margin erosion from trade-related cost pressures, and reposition businesses for sustainable performance in a shifting macroeconomic landscape.

Risk Consulting
We assess and mitigate commercial, political, and financial risks stemming from tariff changes, trade policy shifts, and supply chain vulnerabilities. This supports investor confidence and helps ensure better governance and resilience.

Investment Banking and Transaction Support
From M&A to strategic divestments, we advise on navigating turbulent markets with a clear eye on timing, valuation, and jurisdictional considerations particularly as capital flows respond to new trade realities.

The current global trade environment is challenging, but it also creates space for agile, well-advised businesses and investors to outperform. Whether navigating distressed assets, entering new markets, or realigning strategic direction, stakeholders must act with clarity and precision.

BTG Global Advisory offers the insight, network, and execution experience to guide businesses and investors through this evolving global context.