Uncertainty obscures the global economic outlook. In the short term, global growth will correlate with the pandemic’s path: from the efficacy of existing vaccines to stem the emergence of possible new Covid-19 variants to the effectiveness of policy action and the varying resilience of different economies to lockdown restrictions. But the long-term effects of the pandemic may take years to become apparent, such as changes in long-term supply and demand across economies and in the evolution of financial markets.
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